CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2013-10-22T04:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2013-10-22T04:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/3423/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-10-25T08:19Z (-10.3h, +10.9h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:
http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-10-21_ncmes1_sims47_LIHUE040 -- Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)Lead Time: 64.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-10-22T16:04Z
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